PREVIOUS FEW LINKS
linear interpolation.
About the Law of Large Numbers.
For the breakdown of goals from Messi in last season
For the breakdown in the current season until Week 26 (will be gradually reactualized ) and the definition "goal useless" and "argument game."
DIFFICULTIES TO COMPARE ... DUE
No longer a cliché that you can not compare players of different eras: Different ways to play, different trainers, different socioeconomic backgrounds, varying degrees of impact ... In the majority of cases the person who clings to that cliché does or inability to understand it only makes sense to compare what is different or no interest in it. Nobody doubts that feeds more If a quart of milk or two. In contrast, the comparison becomes relevant when we compare a quart of milk with a quart of wine. Cost more or less make the comparison or draw conclusions, but only compares different.
In the previous post about the inflation figures and CR Messi scorers, several participants complained useful to compare the goals of both figures scorers of the past, you would not on the number of useful goals.
insisting, as always it is the central subject of this blog, on the relevance of the information, I argued that the cost of it seemed excessive in comparison with doubt that he wanted to settle. The mechanism followed was simple and systematic, but tedious: Go journey to find a game-time viewing of Barcelona and Madrid to see the result, and order strikers to score.
information To resolve this hole resorted to interpolation of data. If we assume that the ratio of goals from a player and his team will maintain more or less constant whether those goals are useful or not, one could infer approximate figures (in brackets more or less wide) than we could draw down the totals to establish, if not an exact comparison, if a first approximation. The result of applying the interpolation at different pichichis of the last 15 years throwing the conclusion that putting 20 goals had great merit, to put 25 had a special merit but when it exceeds 30, the number of goals useless grew exponentially, and this reflected more scoring ability the superiority of the player scoring a capacity proportional to the number indicated.
By the way was clear that this method allowed not only shorten the tedious search for data, but extend the comparison to past players, for they hanged all the chronicles of games on the internet. To test the first and only used guinea pig Hugo Sanchez, the top scorer in the English league in 5 years and owner of the record of 38 goals that the two top scorers in the league threatened to topple.
were other times
At that time there was no Internet, or the Pay-Per-View, and Canal + was about to land. The club managed business figures much lower and the main way of income was the amount of fertilizers and inputs. Were obtained for the shirt sponsorship for the static advertising in stadiums and on television was broadcast only one game a week. For the rest there was the radio which extracted revenue clubs Additional rental of booths at the stadium. When many athletes of a certain age say, "I had never seen a player so ..." they forget that for many years saw only 2-3 games per week as much (half in the stadium), far from the 15-20 up for grabs today. The transfer record figures of the time (in today's dollars, adjusted for inflation) ranged from 15 million in 1984, Maradona, 20 by Ruud Gullit in 1987 or 25 by Roberto Baggio in 1990. The victories were rewarded with two points.
In those days commanded in the English league with Real Madrid authority chained 5 consecutive league titles with a generation of homegrown known as the Quinta del Vulture, which was supplemented with some of the Machos Quinta (Gallego, Gordillo, Camacho, Hugo Sánchez), all players worth comparing with the best in their positions today.
Among them stood out with its own personality Mexican Hugo Sanchez, who landed in the hands of a League Atletico Madrid at that time was maintained as a spectator before the fight that pitted the two great League to unseat the champion to the Basque country clubs. However
not lost path Mexico City player who spent the 8 goals in 10 games his first season at 19 in 34 that gave him his first top scorer in his last season in the Manzanares in the league 1984-85. That
League had won the Barcelona and Real Madrid fought back by incorporating the best scorer of the championship which had been released. In 4 of the 5 tournaments in a row made by the club de Concha Espina, the Mexicans won the title of top scorer, reaching the historical ceiling of the league, 38 goals. That same year marked the record Hugo his team also reached the peak in a league of 20 teams with 107 goals.
But we said we were other times. For though the domain of that Madrid could be as obvious as today is that of Barcelona, \u200b\u200bmost of these goals will be produced in games where both goals were drilled and where the white victory used to come from an exchange of goals that used to benefit them them. It scored many goals, but most of them were essential to victory.
ESTIMATED USEFUL GOALS IN THE GOLDEN AGE OF HUGO SANCHEZ
We wanted to consider as his golden period which runs from 1985-1990 to be those years in which in addition to leading list scoresheet with his team winning titles. Thus we do justice to Messi in the later comparison because although it is easier to dial numbers in clubs giddy winners, also increases the likelihood that many of these goals are so many useless thrashings outrageous.
1985-1986
In a league of 18 teams Madrid won the title with 56 points (equivalent to 91.6 points from a current league ), scoring 83 goals, of which Hugo had 22 (26.5%). In a league of 20 both figures would have been 93 and 24 or so.
useless Net team goals was 14, the estimable useless goal of Hugo about 3-4, and therefore the final number of Mexican useful goals should be around 20-21 (always corrected for season of 38 days).
1986-1987
This was the League Play-off where the first 6 classified played a second league but keeping the points in the regular season. A total of 44 games played and won the championship with Real Madrid who won 66 points (equivalent to 80 at present) with 84 goals (about 72-73 now), of whom 34, 40.5% were the work of Mexican. Madrid scored 13 goals useless which could be passed on to about 5 Hugo Sánchez.
If they are excluded from its current figure and homogenize to 38 games the striker would have marked about 29 goals, of which no less than 24 would have been useful.
1987-1988
This year again, the usual format, although the promotion play-off brought two teams to first, so from this point we no longer correct homogenize the figures for 38 games, although we must remember that victories are counted to 2 points.
That year the Real Madrid took the title with 62 points (equivalent to 90 today), scoring 95 goals, of which 29 (30.5%) were the work of our hero.
If we discriminate the 26 goals that useless league goals in Europe and the alleged involvement of Mexico in them, should detract about 8 goals in the figure of 29, then taking the total number of goals would have been useful located around 21.
1988-1989
Whites win the league again with 62 points (in this case equivalent to 87 at present), marking 91 goals, of which 27 (29.7%) were of Hugo Sanchez scorer gave the throne of Belshazzar, a Brazilian who came to Atletico after scoring 120 goals between Brazil and Spain and that everything went this season.
Of the 15 goals useless Mexican team properly chargeable to about 5, so its useful goals tally this season would be around 22.
1989-1990 Year
legendary for meringues who finished the league with just two losses, gaining 62 points (equivalent to 88 current) and setting the record of goals still valid (Increasingly in danger) of 107. Of these, the aforementioned 38 (35.5%) were written by Hugo.
Total useless goals of Madrid reached 27, the vast majority playing at home, and Mexican participation in them should be around 10, so that the number of useful goals should be around 28, a outstanding brand.
COMPARISON WITH MESSI
First of all a break to discuss the methodology used. It is true that the figures for total goals and Hugo Sanchez Real Madrid, are true, and the amount of collective goals that have qualified as useless, but goals are estimates useless player, and as such is recognized in the header.
This could very well mean that the exact numbers differ in any year, but it is equally true that the Law of Large Numbers, it is highly unlikely to differ much from the general overview here is estimated , then apply a linear interpolation to a range that in most cases is less than 25% of the sample universe and is included within it, hardly throw error margins above 5%, or is the same, 1 in 20.
Despite putting 34 goals last year, Messi did not score more than 18 at the time in which the marker was necessary goal for your computer, ie, just over half.
This year the Argentine striker rate is higher, as is the proportion of useful goals to slash 67%, still quite far from the average of 75-80% that could average Mexican.
If that pace kept the Rosario striker would eventually exceed the 38 goals of "HuGol" in the season 89-90, but we still doubt whether his goals tally to exceed the estimated useful 28 for the former Real Madrid player, who until the arrival of Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo held the deserved recognition as League top scorer in the last half century.
But now is the Flea that shakes the doormen ...
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